人民币国际化进程中的全球影响力评估与展望——基于网络溢出指数分析方法

Evaluation and Prospect of RMB’s Global Influence in the Process of RMB Internationalization: Based on the Method of Network Spillover Index

《财经研究》2023年49卷第2期 页码：4 - 18 online：2023年2月3日

作者

中：王盼盼1 , 吴思栩2 , 石建勋3

英：Wang Panpan1, Wu Sixu2, Shi Jianxun3

作者单位：1. 东南大学 经济管理学院，江苏 南京 211189; 2. 华东师范大学 城市与区域科学学院，上海 200241; 3. 同济大学 经济与管理学院，上海 200092

摘要及关键词

摘要：国家“十四五”规划提出要坚持市场驱动，稳慎推进人民币国际化。文章采用网络溢出指数方法，通过建立全球56个经济体货币汇率间相互影响的波动溢出网络来构造反映人民币国际影响力的溢出指数，进而评估人民币在全球范围内的影响力水平并探究其区域异质性。研究表明：人民币影响力正向全球辐射，但并不均衡，并且与主要国际货币仍有较大差距。从地理区域看，人民币在亚洲影响力最强，主要集中在大中华地区、中亚和南亚，人民币在非洲和拉美只对部分经济体有较强影响，而人民币在欧洲的影响只能辐射到东欧和少数南欧国家；从经济区域看，人民币影响力主要集中于全球发展中国家；从国际比较看，除在我国周边少数地理区块外，人民币在全球多数区域的影响力均弱于美元、欧元等国际货币。综合来看，当前人民币已在大中华地区、中亚、东欧和部分南亚经济体基本实现周边化，得益于“一带一路”建设的推进，人民币在发展中国家的区域化进程也已取得一定进展，但要完全实现人民币国际化，依旧任重而道远。文章有助于从货币影响力角度客观评估人民币国际化10多年来的成绩和短板，为明晰未来人民币国际化战略推进的主要着力点、科学制定人民币国际化的稳慎推进策略提供理论支撑和决策依据。

关键词：人民币国际化；人民币汇率；全球影响力；区域异质性

Summary: The 14th Five-Year Plan proposes to adhere to the market-driven approach and prudently promote RMB internationalization. In this context, measuring the global influence of RMB and its regional heterogeneity from the perspective of market influence will help to find the regions where the influence of RMB is still weak, and grasp the direction and focus of the promotion of RMB internationalization in the future. This study uses the network spillover index method to construct a spillover index reflecting the influence of RMB from the perspective of the volatility spillover of RMB exchange rate on the exchange rates of other currencies, and then explores RMB’s global influence and its regional heterogeneity. It shows that RMB’s influence is radiating globally, but it is uneven and still has a large gap with major international currencies. In terms of geographic regions, RMB has the strongest influence in Asia, concentrated in Greater China, Central Asia and South Asia, while it has a strong influence only in a few economies in Africa and Latin America. RMB’s influence in Europe can only radiate to Eastern and a few Southern European countries. In terms of economic regions, RMB’s influence is mainly concentrated in developing countries. In terms of international comparison, except for a few geographic regions around China, the influence of RMB in most regions of the world is weaker than international currencies such as USD and EUR. As a whole, RMB has basically achieved peripheralization in Greater China, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and some South Asian economies, and thanks to the promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative, the regionalization of RMB in developing countries has also made progress. However, there is still a long way to go to fully realize the internationalization of RMB. The contributions of this study include that: First, it uses the exchange rate data of 56 major economies to construct the exchange rate volatility spillover network. The total GDP and foreign trade of the sample both account for 90% of the world share. Based on this sample, we can systematically examine the global and cross-regional influence of RMB. Second, it reveals the regional heterogeneity of RMB’s influence from the dual dimensions of geographic regions and economic regions. Through the analysis of regional heterogeneity, the regions with relatively weak RMB’s influence can be found, which will provide support for improving the levels of RMB regionalization and internationalization in a targeted manner. Third, it further conducts comparisons with international currencies such as USD and EUR to clarify the main competitive currencies faced by RMB in different regions of the world.

Key words:RMB internationalization; RMB exchange rate; global influence; regional heterogeneity

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20220519.201

收稿日期：2021-11-30

基金项目：浙江省哲学社会科学规划重点课题（23NDJC023Z）；国家重点研发计划（2021QY2100）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（72173018）

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